Seasonal Drop in the Real Estate Market: Is There Something to Worry About?
January 2026 brought a clear slowdown in the development market. Apartment sales fell by 27% compared to December 2025. Does this mean the beginning of a crisis? Katarzyna Kuniewicz, head of market research at Otodom, reassures: there is no reason to panic. This is rather a seasonal effect that affects the real estate market every year.
Analysis of January Data
In January, around 3,800 apartments were sold in the seven largest development markets in Poland, representing a 27% decrease compared to December. The introduction of new apartments also decreased — by 32% compared to the previous month. Is this a cause for concern? Katarzyna Kuniewicz explains that this is a normal cycle after the pre-holiday frenzy, when clients try to close transactions before the end of the year.
Seasonality Instead of Crisis
December is traditionally a hot month in the development market. Clients close transactions, developers organize promotions. January, on the other hand, brings calm and time for currency conversion and formalities. It is worth noting that despite the month-to-month drop, January 2026 was 29% better than January 2025, indicating sustained year-on-year demand.
Record Supply in the Market
At the end of January 2026, around 62,000 apartments were available in the seven largest cities in Poland. If we add reserved units to this, we are talking about nearly 68,000 available units. This level is close to record-breaking, showing that developers believe in maintaining demand for apartments.
Growth and Stabilization of Supply
Developers are actively replenishing supply, which indicates their confidence in the market. Despite ongoing sales and the introduction of new apartments, the supply remains stable. This phenomenon gives hope for stability in the housing market in the near future.
Differences Between Cities
The real estate markets in different cities in Poland vary significantly. Warsaw, with the largest supply of over 14,500 apartments, is facing a slight oversupply compared to demand. Kraków, with 700 apartments introduced and 500 sold, is also observing a growing supply.
Poznań – Star of January
Poznań stands out among other cities. Over 400 apartments were sold there, while only a few new ones were introduced, leading to a systematic decrease in supply. This is a signal of strong demand, although it may mean higher prices for buyers in the future.
Katowice and the Tri-City
Katowice, with the smallest supply among the analyzed cities, has more selective demand. Meanwhile, the Tri-City and Wrocław also observe stable interest, which shows the diversity of the housing market in Poland.
Summary
Although January data may seem concerning, they fit into a typical seasonal trend. Differences between cities suggest that the real estate market is diverse, and developers remain optimistic about the future. It is worth monitoring how the situation will develop in the coming months, especially in the context of further market stabilization.