The Primary Market in 2025: Stabilization with Potential
The second quarter of 2025 brings many significant conclusions for investors, those looking for an apartment, and foreign buyers interested in purchasing real estate in Poland. Despite expectations for a dynamic rebound after the decline in interest rates, the primary market remains in a phase of stabilization. Key trends? Record supply, more demanding clients, and strategic decisions by developers.
Key Numerical Data (7 Largest Markets)
- Number of properties on offer: 78,000 (a record in the history of the primary market)
- Sales decline: –5% compared to Q1 2025 (moderate)
- Decline in the number of new investments: –12% fewer new projects
- Top locations: Warsaw, Tri-City, Kraków, Wrocław
- ROI for investment properties: 5.0–7.2% gross depending on location
A Market for the Client, Not the Developer
Key Phenomenon: High Supply
The increase in supply is a result of intense project launches by developers in 2023–2024. Many investments have been introduced even from "backup" projects that had been sitting in drawers until now. Currently, the client has the advantage:
- They can compare the quality of projects and developers
- They do not have to buy a "hole in the ground"
- They can expect added value: terraces, green areas, amenities
- The client is not acting under the influence of FOMO and analyzes offers rationally
Conclusions for Investors:
- It is not worth rushing to purchase without market analysis
- Developers are ready to offer favorable conditions for determined buyers
- It is worth tracking premium offers in locations with development potential
Where to Buy Apartments in Poland? City Analysis
Warsaw and Tri-City
- Sales time: <5 quarters (balanced supply-demand ratio)
- Trends: stable prices, high quality of offers, growing importance of second homes and the premium segment
- Example ROI: 1-room apartments in Gdańsk City Center 6.5–7.2% gross
Kraków, Wrocław, Poznań
- Sales time: 7–8 quarters (the market requires better project selection)
- ROI: on average 5.5–6.2% gross
- Conclusions: it is worth investing in attractively priced apartments with good access and "turnkey" finishing
Łódź and GZM (Katowice and surroundings)
- Sales time: 9–10 quarters
- The client definitely dictates the terms
- Investors can count on discounts, but they must select projects based on quality and location
Mortgage Loans and Their Impact on the Market
Cost of Financing
- Fixed-rate loans have dropped to 6% (from 7%)
- Creditworthiness has increased by about 6% year-on-year, and in the second quarter by another 5%
- Clients have not yet returned en masse to the market – many are expecting further reductions
Typical Client Questions:
- "Is it worth b